未来气候情景下2种新疆特有树种潜在适生区预测  被引量：4

作　　者：王露露 伊力哈木·亚尔买买提[1] Wang Lulu;Yilihamu Yaermaimaiti(School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2022年第6期10-22,共13页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61866037、61462082)。

摘　　要：【目的】昆仑方枝柏和额河杨是新疆2种特有树种。昆仑方枝柏是新疆Ⅰ级、国家Ⅱ级重点保护濒危野生植物;额河杨耐旱、耐贫瘠、抗寒,对盐碱和贫瘠土壤有一定的耐受性,是选育良种的珍贵材料和水土保持的重要植物。气候变化背景下,研究影响两个树种分布的气候因子与各自响应气候变化的模式,为新疆珍贵物种保护起重要的作用。【方法】本文基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告提出的3种共享社会经济路径(SSP245、SSP370、SSP585),采用最大熵方法,用选出的10个环境变量分别预测昆仑方枝柏和额河杨在当前(1970-2000年)与未来(2041-2060年、2061-2080年)不同时期的潜在适生区,比较各SSP下两个物种适生区面积的变化趋势及其响应气候变化的模式。【结果】温度、降水和海拔是影响昆仑方枝柏和额河杨分布的主要环境因子;昆仑方枝柏主要分布在西昆仑山北部、莎车、叶城一带,在未来阿克苏地区的适生区有大幅的减少;额河杨主要分布在额尔齐斯河与其支流一带,在未来有由南向北移动的趋势;两物种当前总适生区面积分别为673 909.49、976 827.81 km^(2);在SSPs下,适生区面积都呈下降趋势;比较两个物种应对气候变化的响应,最冷季度的降水量过高是昆仑方枝柏的适生区减少的主要原因;而额河杨的适生区减少是最湿季度降水量的上升所导致的。【结论】未来温度的上升将使物种分布范围缩小,研究结果可以为政府优化管理,保护濒危野生植物和为中国自然种群多样性的保护提供理论依据。[Objective] Sabina centrasiatica and Populus xjrtyschensis are two endemic tree species in Xinjiang of western China. Sabina centrasiatica is an endangered wild plant under Xinjiang Class Ⅰ and National Class Ⅱ key protection, Populus xjrtyschensis is drought resistant, barren, cold resistant and has a certain tolerance to saline alkali and barren soil. It is a valuable material for breeding improved varieties and an important plant for soil and water conservation. In the context of climate change, the study of the climate factors affecting the distribution of the two species and their response models to climate change plays an important role in the conservation of precious species in Xinjiang. [Method] In this paper, three of the four shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) proposed by the researchers were used in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). The maximum entropy method was used to predict the potential suitable areas of Sabina centrasiatica and Populus xjrtyschensis in the present(1970-2000) and future(2041-2060, 2061-2080) with 10 selected environmental variables, and to compare the changing trend of habitat areas of the two species and their response models to climate change in different periods in the future under the three greenhouse gas concentration paths. [Result] The temperature, precipitation and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Sabina centrasiatica and Populus xjrtyschensis. The Sabina centrasiatica is mainly distributed in the northern part of West Kunlun Mountain, Shache and Yecheng. In the future, the suitable area of Aksu area will be greatly reduced;the Populus xjrtyschensis is mainly distributed in the Erqis River and its tributaries, there will be a trend of moving from south to north in the future. The current total suitable areas of the two species are 673 909.49 and 976 827.81 km^(2),respectively. Under different climate scenarios in the future, the suitable areas of the two s

关 键 词：气候变化 适生区 SSPs 最大熵方法 

分 类 号：S792.35[农业科学—林木遗传育种] S717.2[农业科学—林学] S717.7