“一带一路”沿线区域21世纪极端高温热浪风险预估  被引量：8

作　　者：王芳[1] 张晋韬 葛全胜[1] 郝志新[1] Fang Wang;Jintao Zhang;Quansheng Ge;Zhixin Hao(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]复旦大学大气与海洋科学系,上海200438

出　　处：《科学通报》2021年第23期3045-3058,共14页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602704,2019YFC0507805);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20020202);国家自然科学基金(41771050)资助。

摘　　要：极端高温热浪可能对社会经济和自然生态系统产生多方面的影响,全球增暖背景下增多的高温热浪相关灾害威胁到"一带一路"沿线这一气候类型复杂、且经济基础薄弱区域的可持续发展.在高温高湿环境下,人体健康面临更大威胁,与传统研究仅考虑温度这一变量相比,考虑温度-湿度的综合作用可以更好地解释人体在高温环境下的热负荷,进而更好地衡量高温热浪事件的强度特征.因此本研究基于ISI-MIP全球气候模式模拟试验和NCARCIDR人口预估数据集,以一个反映温度-湿度协同效应的热浪指数表征极端高温的健康风险,对21世纪该区域不同风险等级高温热浪的发生频率及人口暴露度的变化进行了预估.结果表明,在未来温度-湿度变化综合影响下,"一带一路"沿线大部分区域的高温热浪强度和频次呈现不同程度的增加趋势,在两种典型气候-社会经济情景(SSP2-4.5和SSP3-8.5)下,到21世纪末全区各等级极端高温热浪的人口暴露度总和将增加至基准时段(1986~2005年)的2.0和3.3倍,且越高风险等级(对人体健康影响越大)的高温热浪出现频次及其人口暴露度的相对增加越突出.极端高温热浪及其人口暴露度最突出的增加出现在低纬度的南亚和东南亚地区,对这些区域发展中国家的大量人口构成潜在威胁.总体上气候因素对人口暴露度增加的贡献最大,但气候/人口因素的相对贡献大小存在明显的区域差异.The"Belt and Road Initiative",an important national measure undertaken during the reform and opening-up policy of China,includes the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.The Belt and Road Initiative involves over four billion people from more than 60 countries;therefore,it is imperative to make accurate projections of future climate changes for improved mitigation planning at the national level.Extreme heat waves may have significant impacts on several aspects of natural ecosystems and society,prompting considerable concern;thus,research is necessary with respect to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves in the context of global warming.Increasing heat wave related disasters in a potentially warmer future may pose threats to the sustainable development of the Belt and Road Region(BRR)—A region with various complex climates and a weak economic foundation.Heat wave disasters that are accompanied by high temperatures and humidity can threaten human health.Traditional research on heat waves focuses on the effects of temperature;however,taking the comprehensive effect of temperature-humidity into consideration can better explain heat stress on the human body in a high-temperature environment and better measure the intensity of heat waves.Therefore,we adopted a heat wave index(a widely used indicator for the synergistic effect of temperature and humidity)developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to characterize the health risks associated with heat waves,as well as to further project the changes in areal and population exposure to heat waves in the 21 st century at different risk levels throughout the BRR under two typical climatic-socioeconomical scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-8.5).Our analysis was based on state-of-the-art global climate models that are a part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and a population projection dataset developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the City University of New York’

关 键 词：极端高温 热浪指数 一带一路 暴露度 气候变化 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]